Categories
Uncategorized

Happy New Year

I wish everyone a Happy New Year. Let’s hope this one will be a better one than last year…

In a way, that shouldn’t be hard. One would think that nothing could be worse than last year. However, let us keep in mind that the number of infections with a viral disease displays exponential growth; the increase in the number of infections grows with the number of infections itself. This can grow out of control much faster than you think.

You can compare it with folding a piece of paper. Every time you fold it, it becomes twice as thick as it previously was. Now, consider the distance to the moon. Many people think that, in order to get to the moon, one would have to fold a piece of paper an extremely large number of times, in the order of millions or so. But, due to exponential growth, this number is much smaller in reality: you actually only need to fold 42 times in order for the piece of paper to reach the moon! (https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/paper-folding-to-the-moon-410ebfc17a6)

Even though this is a bit of a stretched example, as it is impossible to fold a single piece of paper that many times, it does show us quite well how easily people underestimate exponential growth.

Don’t be fooled: when people want to take a break, Covid-19 will work extra hours. Stay safe everyone (and stay inside, as much as you can)!

It may be boring from time to time, but please make sure you don’t regret going out later; that is, when you, or someone you love gets into trouble…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.